2008 MELTDOWN VS CURRENT SCENERIO :
NIFTY WAS TRADING AT HIGHER LEVEL & AT MUCH HIGHER PE DUE TO FEW STOCKS.CURRENTLY ALSO NIFTY IS TRADING AT PE OF 27 WHICH IS NOT CHEAPER VS MANY WORLD MARKET & HISTORICALLY ALSO FOR OUR MARKETS
STILL NIFTY IS JUST DOWN JUST 9% FROM ITS ALL TIME HIGH
BROADER MARKET CARNAGE IS WROSTE THAN EVEN 2008 MELTDOWN.
INDIVIDUAL STOCKS HAVE SEEN HUGE WEALTH DESTRUCTION.
MELTDOWN IN 2008 WAS DUE TO GLOBAL CUES & WHEN GLOBAL MARKETS RECOVERED WE ALSO RECOVERED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME
CURRENT SITUATION IS DUE TO LOCAL CUES :
🚩LTCG
🚩LIQUIDITY CRUNCH
🚩ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
🚩EARNINGS SLOWDOWN
🚩GOVT POLICIES NOT PICKING UP IN SHORT TERM
🚩HUGE SELLING BY FII & FPI COZ OF HIGHER SURCHARGE ON TAX & SLOWDOWN
JUST IMAGINE IF GLOBAL CUES TURNS NEGATIVE FOR US THAN HOW OUR MARKETS WOULD BEHAVE.
NIFTY HAS BOKEN 11000 WHICH WAS GOOD SUPPORT FOR BOUNCE.BUT BOUNCE WONT BE SUSTAINED TO TAKE MARKETS TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS IN SHORT TERM.
GENERALLY MARKET TENDS TO TEST 200 DMA IN CORRECTION PHASE.NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY THOSE LEVELS ON NIFTY.
BOUNCE FROM TESTING ON 200 DMA IS SHARP & AS 200 DMA IS BROKEN THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF MARKETS TO GIVE MORE PAIN.THERE CAN’T BE ONE SIDE DOWNWARD JOURNEY BUT SLOW & STEADY DOWN MOVE WITH BOUNCES.
2018 LOW ON NIFTY WAS 9850 & THAT CAN BE TESTED IN WROSTE SCENERIO IF THERE IS ANY GLOBAL MELTDOWN.AS OF NOW 10950 IS VERY STRONG SUPPORT ON NIFTY ON CLOSING BASIS,IF THAT IS BROKEN THAN THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES TO TEST 10888/10690/10490/10250
EVEN MIDCAP & SMALLCAP INDEX CAN CORRECT MORE FROM CURRENTLY 5420 & 15510 LEVELS AS PER TECHNICALS.
CURRENTLY MARKETS & MAX INDICES ARE AT OVERSOLD LEVELS WE CAN SEE SOME SHORTCOVERING SOON.
Disc – All views expressed are personal and for Educational and study purpose. Views can differ as it’s just comparison of Authors views of last Global Meltdown. Consult your financial advisor before investing or taking any position based on above article.
WealthCreatures 